Soludo grades Jonathan “F” on economy; says his administration the worst ever

A former governor of the Central Bank of

Nigeria, Chukwuma Soludo, has delivered a

ruthless evaluation of the Nigerian economy

under President Goodluck Jonathan, ranking the

administration “F” on economic management,

and suggesting the Jonathan government is

Nigeria’s worst as far as the management of the

economy is concerned.

Mr. Soludo said while Mr. Jonathan lacks

achievements to point to, or clear future plans as

he seeks re-election, his main challenger, the All

Progressives Congress, APC’s presidential

candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, also lacks

specific plans on how to salvage Nigeria’s

economy should he win elections next month.

“My advice to President Jonathan and his

handlers is to stop wasting their time trying to

campaign on his job record. Those who have

decided to vote for him will not do so because he

has taken Nigeria to the moon. His record on the

economy is a clear ‘F’ grade,” Mr. Soludo said.

“Everywhere else in the world, government

performance on the economy is measured by

some outcome variables such as: income (GDP

growth rate), stability of prices (inflation and

exchange rate), unemployment rate, poverty

rate, etc.

On all these scores, this government has

performed worse than its immediate

predecessor— Obasanjo regime. If we

appropriately adjust for oil income and debt,

then this government is the worst in our history

on the economy.”

Mr. Soludo’s assessment, in a lengthy article

published Sunday, took aim at the government’s

economic policies that have resulted in

unprecedented levels of poverty and

unemployment.

He said the economy appears to be on “auto pilot” and lambasted

the president’s economic team led by Finance Minister, Ngozi

Okonjo-Iweala, as a team “dominated by self-interested and self-

conflicted group of traders and businessmen”.

He said Nigeria has been handed over to economic racketeers.

“The very people government exists to regulate have seized the

levers of government as policymakers and most government

institutions have largely been ‘privatized’ to them. Mention any

major government department or agency and someone will tell

you whom it has been ‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently

nominates his minion to occupy the seat,” he said.

Mr. Soludo said while Nigeria has for years enjoyed oil boom and

increasing budget, poverty and unemployment reached

unprecedented levels under President Jonathan.

“This is the only government in our history where rapidly

increasing government expenditure was associated with

increasing poverty. The director general of NBS (National Bureau

of Statistics) stated in his written press conference address in

2011 that about 112 million Nigerians were living in poverty. Is

this the record to defend?” he said.

The former CBN governor said on the other hand, while the APC

promises change, the party and its candidate, Mr. Buhari, have

shockingly offered no specifics on how its plans will be achieved.

Mr. Soludo said in his estimation, the current level of poverty and

unemployment could only be reversed with a minimum of 3

million jobs annually. Mr. Jonathan has pledged 2million jobs

yearly if re-elected, while Mr. Buhari has promised 20,000 new

jobs in each state of the federation annually, raising its total to

about 720,000.

Either way, Mr. Soludo said, no party has given specifics how

they will create the jobs to roll back the level of poverty, which at

71per cent is the worst in the history in Nigeria.

“This sounds like a quota system and for a country where the

new entrants into the labour market per annum exceed two

million,” he said of the APC’s offer. “If it was intended as a joke,

APC must please get serious. On the other hand, President

Jonathan targets two million jobs per annum but his strategy for

doing so is a Job Board— another committee of sort. Sorry, Mr.

President, a Job Board is not a strategy. The principal job

Nigerians hired you to do for them is to create jobs for them too.

You cannot outsource that job, Sir. Creating 3 million jobs per

annum under the unfolding crisis would task our creativity and

audacity to the limits.”

Mr. Soludo said the government of Mr. Jonathan lacks excuse for

its woeful performance since it inherited a relatively robust

economy and also enjoyed years of oil boom.

He said instead of building on that outlay, the Jonathan

government not only depleted foreign reverses, but increased

Nigeria’s debt yet again, without adding a “penny” to the

reserves.

Mr. Soludo, a former chief economic adviser to former President

Olusegun Obasanjo, said in his estimation, if the economy had

been well managed during the years if oil boom, Nigeria should

have raked in a minimum of $102bn as foreign reserves, and

would have cut unemployment and maintained exchange rate at

N112 per dollar.

“For comparisons, President Obasanjo met about $5 billion in

foreign reserves, and the average monthly oil price for the 72

months he was in office was $38, and yet he left $43 billion in

foreign reserves after paying $12 billion to write-off Nigeria’s

external debt. In the last five years, the average monthly oil price

has been over $100, and the quantity also higher but our foreign

reserves have been declining and exchange rate depreciating.

“My calculation is that if the economy was better managed, our

foreign reserves should have been between $102 –$118 billion

and exchange rate around N112 before the fall in oil prices. As of

now, the reserves should be around $90 billion and exchange rate

no higher than N125 per dollar,” he said.

Mr. Soludo said solving Nigeria’s electricity problems is not

enough to create jobs as many believe. He said there are other

factors, including the quality of manpower.

“For example, currently in Nigeria, it is estimated that more than

60 per cent of graduates of our educational system are

unemployable. You can understand why many of us are amused

when the government celebrates that it has established twelve

more glorified secondary schools as universities. I thought they

would have told us how many Nigerian universities made it in the

league of the best 200 universities in the world. That would have

been an achievement,” he said.

He said whoever between Messrs Jonathan and Buhari is declared

winner after February 14 election, he expects a national

emergency to de declared on job creation.

Mr. Soludo praised President Jonathan for refusing to sign the

Economic Partnership Agreement with the European Union,

calling the decision the president’s most important initiative of

his government to secure the future of the economy, and

wondered why that achievement is not being celebrated.

Mr. Soludo said if Mr. Buhari rides on the crest of his party’s

touted “change” and wins, the “honeymoon” will be brief and the

pressure will be immense to magically deliver a new Nigeria with

no corruption, no boko haram or insecurity, jobs for everyone, no

poverty, infrastructure and power in abundance, etc.

“As a first point, Buhari and his team must realize that they do

not yet have a coherent, credible agenda that is consistent with

the fundamentals of the economy currently. The APC manifesto

contains some good principles and wish-lists, but as a blue print

for Nigeria’s security and prosperity, it is largely hollow. The

numbers do not add up. Thus, his first job is to present a credible

development agenda to Nigerians,” he said.

Of Mr. Jonathan, should he be re-elected, Mr. Soludo said his

greatest challenge will be how to save himself from the

stranglehold of his largely provincial palace jesters who tell him

he has done better than God, and seek out ‘enemies’ and friends

who can help him write his name in history.

“Propaganda won’t do it,” he said.